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Defence & Aerospace

The Mystery of China’s Restraint in South China Sea

While most Chinese are vehemently calling for their government to order the PLA to deal a heavy blow at the Philippines in order to teach it a lesson, the Chinese government persists in pursuing a peaceful solution even though the face-off was described by former Philippine foreign minister Domingo Siazon as “between an elephant and an ant”. In its report “Manila stuns the world by standing up to Beijing”, SCMP believes US intervention may be a factor.

However, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton clearly announced that America would not take side in the disputes, but Chinese government’s attitude remains unchanged in spite of  the rise of nationalism at home.

Why? What is the mystery behind that?

In fact, the Philippines wants a quick solution due to the oil and gas reserve in the area that may bring billions of US dollars to its coffer, but that is a small amount for China who has a foreign exchange reserve of US$3 trillion. For China, it is mainly an issue of national dignity. It is willing to maintain the status quo as long as its national dignity is respected.

The Philippines will always be under threat as the Chinese navy grows increasingly powerful, while China can deal with any Philippine challenge with contempt.

Chinese leaders seem to be wise and understand the fear that China’s sudden rise may give rise among its neighbours and all the world powers. The “elephant” can easily conquer the “ant”, but China will set an image as a bully and every other country will be on its guard against China. There have been lots of talks about China being encircled by America and its allies when America decided to station 2,500 troops in Australia. Encircling China with such a small military force is ridiculous, but it certainly reflects China’s neighbours’ worry. If China attacks the Philippines against world opinion, the encirclement after that will be a real one and China will, in addition, be isolated.

The greatest mystery, though there have been clear clues to it such as the China and ASEAN free trade agreement, is China’s pursuit of a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere.

China is now exporting its Chinese model. Following China’s example, North Korea is now establishing Sino-North Korean joint ventures for China to utilise the natural resources and cheap labour. North Korea will export lots of goods to China. This will make North  Korea rich and greatly improve people’s living standards. North Korea will in turn become a growing market for Chinese exports. North Korea’s Kim Dynasty, if follows the Chinese model, will become popular. That will be the only way out for Kim Jong-un to maintain the survival of his dynasty.

The transformation of North Korea from poverty to prosperity will set a North Korean model that will be eagerly followed by China’s other neighbours. In fact, China is now investing heavily in Cambodia and other ASEAN countries and will perhaps set, in addition, a Cambodian model. The vast and populous eastern Asia region will become sources of natural resources and cheap labour and a growing market for China while China will offer its huge market for those neighbouring countries.

Decades ago,Japan shed lots of blood to fight for the establishment of its Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere but failed disastrously. However, it seems that China will succeed in establishing a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere centred on China without firing one bullet if it succeeds in setting North Korean and Cambodian models.

China certainly will not allow its marine territorial disputes with the Philippines to affect the achievement of that ambition.

About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee


4 thoughts on “The Mystery of China’s Restraint in South China Sea

  1. Reblogged this on Craig Hill.


    Posted by Craig Hill | May 4, 2012, 6:38 pm


  1. Pingback: Manila stuns the world by standing up to Beijing « China Daily Mail - May 4, 2012

  2. Pingback: Extra patrol vessels set to fuel tension in South China Sea « China Daily Mail - May 7, 2012

  3. Pingback: China’s defence chief in US for talks « China Daily Mail - May 8, 2012

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