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Politics & Law

Naval war between China and Japan seems imminent

Li Baodong

Japan nationalised the Diaoyu Islands (called Senkaku Islands by Japan) to claim its sovereignty over the islands. According to Ming Pao, to counter that and claim China’s sovereignty over those islands under dispute, Chinese Permanent Representative to the United Nations Li Baodong delivered the coordinates of the base points for the baseline and the marine chart of China’s territorial sea around the islands.

Amid flaring nationalism, Chinese people have protested and refused to buy Japanese goods. A man even burnt a Honda Civic he owned before Honda’s sales outlet in Shanghai.

So far six Japanese have been injured by angry Chinese.

Earlier Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan would send its navy to defend its territorial sea around the island if Chinese vessels entered the area around the islands.

Now, China has sent six marine surveillance ships to patrol the area. What has Japan done?

It lodged a formal diplomatic protest.

Has Japan sent its navy to drive away Chinese ships?

Reuters says in its report, “The Japanese coast guard said it ordered the ships to leave Japan’s territorial waters, but only two complied, leaving four Chinese vessels still in the disputed area.

“No force had been used to remove the Chinese ships, a coast guard official said.

“‘We’ll do our utmost in vigilance and surveillance,’ said Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda when asked about Japan’s responses.”

It seems that he does not want to fight a war now. However, under pressure from Japanese nationalists he may send his navy.

I wonder what China will do if Japan does send its navy to drive away Chinese marine surveillance ships. Will China send its navy to protect those ships?

A naval war between China and Japan seems imminent.

Click here for all stories about Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)

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19 thoughts on “Naval war between China and Japan seems imminent

  1. Reblogged this on OyiaBrown.


    Posted by OyiaBrown | September 15, 2012, 8:44 pm
  2. Even the philippines & it’s neighboring countries are eager to defend their ownership, but due to small & poor ,they can’t…


    Posted by Joy Ocampo | September 15, 2012, 11:56 pm
    • However, they may form alliance with one anather and even with Japan in dealing with China. That will be quite a great trouble for China. China has to handle the disputes with them one by one as soon as possible before such alliance has been formed.

      If interested please read my post “War between China and Japan Really Imminet” today.


      Posted by chankaiyee2 | September 16, 2012, 12:11 pm
  3. China is sending it;s MARINE SURVEILLANCE AGENCY vessels. These are not Chinese PLA Navy or even
    Chinese Coast Guard. They are predominantly civilian controlled tasked to monitor Environmental issues and
    enforecement of fisheries laws within the Chinese EEZ. They are only lightly armed and do not call for a military/naval response. This is why Japan has only sent Japan Coast Guard vessels to inderdict them. So the above article misses the point entirely. A war is not as “imminent” as it appears.
    It is China which may, under any number of excuses, decide to send PLA Navy warships. In which case Japan will undoubtedly send Japan Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSDF) vessels. their equivalent of a Navy. Simultaneously, should Chinese naval vessels enter the Senkaku waters Article 5 of the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty which obligates us to defend Japan from foreign invasion will kick in and the U.S 7th Fleet will be sailing from Yokosuka and Sasebo Japan and we will find out just how much China wants to play hardball over some uninhabited rocks.
    China’s PLA Navy admirals are fully aware of this which is why no Chinese warships have been sent to the Senkakus.


    Posted by Gene S. | September 16, 2012, 12:25 am
    • You are right that China merely sends civilian ships lightly armed to the disputed waters while Japan acted with restraint and did not tell its coast guard vessels to drive Chinese ships away from the waters it claims sovereignty over, to avoid clash with those lightly armed vessels. However, if Chinese ships and fishing boats continue to operate regularly in those waters, will Japanese vessels not try to drive them away?

      If Japanese vessels are unable to drive away Chinese vessels as they are inferior in arms or size, will Japan send its navy to drive away Chinese vessels as promised by Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda?

      As pointed out in my post “War with Japan or the Philipines” on July 18, “I believe Chinese military strategists always follow Sun Tzu’s teaching and will not conduct a naval war with Japan as China does not have overwhelming naval superiority over Japan and China will surely be defeated if the US is involved.”

      That is why before Japan’s nationalization of the disputed islands, Chinese government always acted with restraint and did not allow Chinese Diaoyu Islands activists’ vessel to go to the islands to claim Chinese sovereignty while there were lots of talks in Chinese TVs about a naval war in 2014 to revenge China’s naval defeat in 1894.

      The situation is different now. Reading Chinese media and watching Chinese TVs you sense strong smell of gun powder. Under popular pressure, Chinese government will be forced to fight a war even if it does not want to and even if it clearly knows that it is unable to win.

      Let’s recall Chinese history. When Japan invaded China’s Northeast in early 1930s, Chinese KMT government did not resist, knowing well Chinese troops were much inferior to Japan’s as China was very poor and backward then. But there were nationwide mass protests urging the KMT government to fight. College students (a rare species very influential in China at that time) even lied on railway tracks in protest.

      The KMP became unpopular for that and lose the civil war later in spite of its stronger army and the strong support from the US.

      Now, China is the second largest economy in the world. If the Communist government refuses to fight when Japanese navy drives away Chinese vessels, there will be mass protests on a larger scale than Tiananmen Protests. Chinese Communist regime will certainly collapse!

      To fight or not fight, that is the question, i.e. the dilemma Chinese Communist government faces now. Of the choice of two evils, the government will choose war instead of collapse.

      That is why war is imminent unless Japan does not employ its navy in the disputes.

      As an American, you are in a better position to judge whether the United States wants to fight a war with China now to help Japan in the disputes over some small islands.

      To fight or not fight, that is also the question for the United States.

      The United States was not prepared before Pearl Harbor and 911. Is it prepared for a war with China which may be the commencement of World War III.

      War between China and Japan is imminent. Do no say you are not warned!


      Posted by chankaiyee2 | September 16, 2012, 12:20 pm
  4. Lock and load!


    Posted by leroy | September 17, 2012, 1:35 am
  5. China stirs up anti-Japanese hysteria every time its leaders have something they wish to divert the masses attention away from. That seems to be the case again here. Their economy is struggling and they’re having a rocky leadership transition. When the protesters start burning politburo offices THEN come talk to me.


    Posted by Eddie Lutz (@lutzeddie) | September 17, 2012, 3:26 am
    • You are totally wrong. The Chinese government hadn’t wanted this serious tension with Japan at all, but it was the Japanese government that’s been provoking all the way by nationalizing the islands and changing the status quo. The Chinese government has no choice but act hard under enormous popular pressure.


      Posted by Leo K | September 18, 2012, 8:27 pm
  6. W W III


    Posted by Robert S | September 17, 2012, 7:53 pm
  7. Go Japan!


    Posted by shovonc | September 17, 2012, 8:50 pm


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