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Politics & Law

War between China and Japan imminent; reply to comments

Anti-Japanese Protests in China

I am glad that my respected friends Joy Ocampo and Gene S. commented my post Naval War between China and Japan Seems Imminent soon after it was posted. Joy Ocampo said:

Even the Philippines & it’s neighbouring countries are eager to defend their ownership, but due to small & poor, they can’t…

However, they may form alliance with one another, and even with Japan in dealing with China. That will be quite a great trouble for China. China has to handle the disputes with them one by one as soon as possible before such an alliance has been formed.

Gene S. believes that war is not imminent as China is no match to Japan which has US support. He says:

China is sending it’s MARINE SURVEILLANCE AGENCY vessels. These are not Chinese PLA Navy or even Chinese Coast Guard. They are predominantly civilian controlled tasked to monitor Environmental issues and enforecement of fisheries laws within the Chinese EEZ. They are only lightly armed and do not call for a military/naval response. This is why Japan has only sent Japan Coast Guard vessels to inderdict them. So the above article misses the point entirely. A war is not as ‘imminent’ as it appears.

It is China which may, under any number of excuses, decide to send PLA Navy warships. In which case Japan will undoubtedly send Japan Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSDF) vessels. their equivalent of a Navy. Simultaneously, should Chinese naval vessels enter the Senkaku waters Article 5 of the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty which obligates us to defend Japan from foreign invasion will kick in and the U.S 7th Fleet will be sailing from Yokosuka and Sasebo Japan and we will find out just how much China wants to play hardball over some uninhabited rocks.

China’s PLA Navy admirals are fully aware of this which is why no Chinese warships have been sent to the Senkakus.

Gene S. is right that China merely sent civilian ships lightly armed to the disputed waters while Japan acted with restraint and did not tell its coast guard vessels to drive Chinese ships away from the waters it claims sovereignty over, to avoid clash with those lightly armed vessels. However, if Chinese ships and fishing boats continue to operate regularly in those waters, will Japanese vessels not try to drive them away?

If Japanese vessels are unable to drive away Chinese vessels as they are inferior in arms or size, will Japan send its navy to drive away Chinese vessels as promised by Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda?

As pointed out in my post War with Japan or the Philippines? on July 18, “I believe Chinese military strategists always follow Sun Tzu’s teaching and will not conduct a naval war with Japan as China does not have overwhelming naval superiority over Japan and China will surely be defeated if the US is involved.”

That is why before Japan’s nationalisation of the disputed islands, the Chinese government always acted with restraint and did not allow Chinese Diaoyu Islands activists’ vessel to go to the islands to claim Chinese sovereignty. At that time, there was lots of talk on Chinese TV about a naval war in 2015 to revenge China’s naval defeat in 1895.

The situation is different now. Reading Chinese media and watching Chinese TV, you sense a strong smell of gun powder. Under popular pressure, the Chinese government will be forced to fight a war even if it does not want to and even if it clearly knows that it is unable to win.

Let’s recall Chinese history. When Japan invaded China’s Northeast in early 1930s, the Chinese KMT government did not resist, knowing well that Chinese troops were much inferior to Japan’s as China was very poor and backward then. But there were nationwide mass protests urging the KMT government to fight. College students (a rare species very influential in China at that time) even lay on railway tracks in protest.

The KMT became unpopular for that and lost the civil war later in spite of its stronger army and the strong support from the US.

Now, China is the second largest economy in the world. If the Communist government refuses to fight when the Japanese navy drives away Chinese vessels, there will be mass protests on a larger scale than the Tiananmen protests. The Chinese Communist regime will certainly collapse!

To fight or not to fight, that’s the question, the dilemma the Chinese Communist government faces now. Of the choice of two evils, the government will choose war instead of collapse.

That is why war is imminent unless Japan does not employ its navy in the disputes.

As an American, you are in a better position to judge whether the United States wants to fight a war with China now to help Japan in the disputes over some small islands.

To fight or not fight, that’s also the question for the United States.

The United States was not prepared before Pearl Harbor and 9/11. Is it prepared for a war with China which may be the commencement of World War III?

War between China and Japan is imminent.

Click here for all stories about Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)

About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee

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