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Politics & Law

Obvious signs of eased tension between China and Japan


Yoshihiko Noda

On September 16, I published a post stating that war between China and Japan is imminent, but I now say that tension has been eased.

Am I self contradictory? No, I believed that war was imminent because Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda once said that he would send the navy to the disputed sea area.

I said quite a few times in my posts that China did not want to fight a war but had to do something to quell the surge of nationalism at home and hoped that the United States would play its role in easing the tension.

Obviously, the US has played a vital role in easing the tension.

During US Defence Secretary Leon E. Panetta’s recent Beijing visit, he told Beijing that the disputed islands were covered by the defence treaty between the US and Japan, so that Beijing dared not fire the first shot in order to prevent US involvement.

However, it seemed that Panetta told Japan during his recent visit there that if Japan fired the first shot, the US would not help it as the treaty was for mutual defence instead of attack.

If neither side wants to fight the first shop, i.e. neither side sends its navy to the disputed sea area, there will not be a war. Even if there are some bumping incidents between patrol vessels, both sides will act with restraint.

We now see the critical role of the superpower in maintaining peace.

What I have said is perhaps mere speculation. Have I any fact to support my view?

Certainly, there are.

First, according to Ming Pao on October 4, destroyers 112 and 116, frigates 528 and 546, submarine salvage vessels 861 and 864 and supply vessel 881 of PLA North Sea Fleet sailed across Miyako-jima Strait into the Pacific for training.

Japanese Defence Minister Satoshi Morimoto said that China was making a show of its strength by so doing.

However, analysts regard it as a sign of eased tension in the disputed sea area.

The training in the Pacific is a routine one usually held in September but was suspended due to the tension and possibility of war. Now, the resumption of the training obviously indicates ease of tension.

Otherwise, the North Sea Fleet that is in charge of defending Beijing certainly would not allow quite a large part of it to leave the area it is obliged to defend.

Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba, however, said yesterday that he did not believe that the said action of PLA fleet was related to the disputes over Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands). He even said that a way should be found to turn the situation stable by peaceful means.

Thankfully both China and Japan think what they have done in aggravating the tension is enough. Japan has purchased the disputed islands to claim its sovereignty while China is conducting regular patrol of the disputed sea area to claim its sovereignty. If those are enough for both sides, it is time now sit down to resolve the disputes peacefully.

Second, according to SCMP, the Japanese government has chosen Masato Kitera to replace its current ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa. Kitara has no China experience but is chosen for “his renowned mediating skills”.

That again indicates Japan’s desire for resolving the disputes through mediation instead of by force.

About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee

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