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Finance & Economy

IMF cuts China’s growth forecasts

China‘s economic growth is expected to weaken to 7.8 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday as it warned of risks to emerging Asia if the euro zone crisis worsens and the United States does not avoid its “fiscal cliff”.

However, the IMF said several Asian countries had fiscal room to support their economies if needed and it reiterated a long-standing view that some regional countries, including China, have weaker currencies than desirable.

The IMF sharply lowered its forecasts for India and predicted “less buoyant” growth in the near- and medium-term for Asia as a whole, cautioning any cool down in China’s investment surge will add to the drag on regional and German manufacturers.

“The balance of risks to the near-term growth outlook is tilted to the downside,” the Fund said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook.

It predicted China’s economy, the world’s second-biggest, will “soft land” by growing 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year, boosted by interest rate cuts in June and July. Beijing has targeted growth of 7.5 percent this year.

In July, the IMF had forecast 2012 growth of 8 percent and 2013 expansion of 8.5 percent.

“In the short term, a further escalation of the euro area crisis and failure to address the U.S. fiscal cliff are the main external risks,” the Fund said.

Europe and the United States are the two biggest buyers of China’s exports, which are growing at a single-digit pace — the weakest in three years — as western shoppers tighten their belts.

The IMF’s China forecast has fallen into line with private sector economists. A September poll by Reuters showed they expect the world’s growth engine to grow 7.7 percent this year, its weakest in 13 years.

The economic headwinds for Asia could worsen, the IMF said. The U.S. economy could sink into recession if congress does not avert a “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax rises and deep federal spending cuts before a year-end deadline.

In that vein, the IMF said China, South Korea and emerging nations in Southeast Asia have room to loosen fiscal policy and shore up economic growth, if needed.

Beijing is already loosening fiscal policy at the margins. Since May, it has accelerated more than $150 billion worth of state spending on infrastructure.

But analysts have warned that China’s addiction to heavy investment as a means of supporting growth is not sustainable in the long run if it wants to rebalance its economy towards domestic consumption.

Investment accounted for half of China’s economic growth in the first-half of this year.


The IMF said India, Asia’s third-largest economy, is expected to grow 4.9 percent this year, down from a forecast in July of 6.1 percent. It penciled in 6 percent growth next year, compared to an earlier 6.5 percent projection.

It cited red tape, weakening business sentiment, a rising current account deficit and rupee depreciation for the cuts in forecasts.

And unlike the rest of Asia, where inflation is expected to fall, the IMF said price pressures in India were elevated.

“Monetary policy should stay on hold until a sustained decrease in inflation materializes,” it said.

The central bank left interest rates on hold in September after wholesale price inflation rose to 7.55 percent in August.

Expectations for a twin slowdown in China and India led the IMF to shave its growth projections for developing Asia to 6.7 percent from 7.1 percent in July. The growth forecast for next year was trimmed to 7.2 percent from 7.5 percent.

Softening growth aside, the Fund also urged Asian countries to guard against domestic imbalances that stifle local consumption and obstruct a rebalancing of the global economy.

It cited five countries — China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand — as being guilty of running stronger trade surpluses and weaker currencies than desirable.


About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee

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