Today the Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report was released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council. It is grabbing headlines around the world after saying that by 2030 China will have more global clout than the United States of America and European Union combined.
This change will mean a fundamental shift in how the world works, and will bring about radical changes in how Western states conclude their international activities, and will likely force down relative living standards in established economies.
Chinese growth will continue to outpace that of the West, bringing increased prosperity and international clout to China at the expense of the West. Higher birth rates, increased spending in technology and military capabilities, and rising GDP/capita will all contribute to China’s impending dominance. Interestingly 2030 is the midpoint between China’s projected economic dominance (2025) and the year at which China’s military spending is projected to outpace that of the USA (2035).
For those who have studied the rise of China, this report should ultimately come as no surprise in of itself. The truly interesting result of the report will be any related statements or actions taken by politicians over the next few days and weeks.
I wrote elsewhere about how dangerous and misguided the Obama pivot towards Asia was, given it’s focus on military dominance. I hope this report, from such a highly respected organisation, will encourage the Obama administration to rethink their position and decrease tension between Western and Asian nations.
- Asia ‘set to eclipse’ US by 2030 (bbc.co.uk)
- Global Trends 2030: How China and India will be more powerful than U.S. by 2030 (thisismoney.co.uk)
- Intelligence community: U.S. out as sole superpower by 2030 (politico.com)