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Defence & Aerospace

Does hardliners’ landslide victory in Japan make war with China inevitable?

Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

Of the 480 lower house seats, the Democratic Liberal Party has taken 294 seats, New Komeito, 31, and Japan Restoration Party, 54.

Japanese hardliners have an overwhelming majority of 379, or 79%, in the lower house of Japan’s parliament now.

It is easy for hardliners to decide to fight a war against China for the disputed islands now.

On the Chinese side, there is now a leader of quick decision and quick action (refer to my post Xi Jinping, a Man of Quick Decision and Actions dated November 30 at ).

As soon as Xi took over, China sent navy ships and civil administrative aircraft to patrol the sea areas around the disputed islands the Diaoyus (called Senkakus by Japan). We should say Xi really has made quick decisions and taken quick actions in dealing with that tricky issue.

Japanese Prime Minister Noda, who was not so hawkish as Shinzo Abe, his successor in waiting, was infuriated by China’s air patrol. He sent a fleet of military aircraft (instead of civil aircraft) to drive away Chinese civil administrative aircraft. Obviously, even Noda who was not so hawkish wanted to show his willingness to fight.

What about Abe? Abe said, “Japan and China need to share the recognition that having good relations is in the national interests of both countries. China lacks this recognition a little bit. I want them to think anew about mutually beneficial strategic relations.”

Prime Minister Noda and his officials have tried their best in vain to persuade China to share that recognition.

Does Abe have better persuasion?

He resorts to the persuasion of strength.

Abe said his first port of call as prime minister would be the United States. He believes that his persuasion will be strong enough with US support.

However, perhaps both Abe and the US may fail to really understand the situation in China.

Xi Jinping’s first major activity after he became the general secretary was to visit an exhibition on China’s renaissance. He brought all the members of China’s power centre, the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), with him and gave an important speech stressing the lesson China has learn from its miserable past: “lagging behind leaves one vulnerable to attacks and only development makes a nation strong”

Xi was quick to exploit the surge of patriotism caused by the disputes over the Diaoyus to gain support. It is his way to build up his power base.

He has lots to gain if China wins in its naval and air battles against Japan. The victory will help him in his efforts to build up his power base and remove his opponents.

He would lose nothing if China loses in the battles. The failure will justify his harsh measures in dealing with tricky domestic problems such as corruption and obstacles to reform on the grounds that such problems hinder development.

The first priority for a new leader in China is to establish his power base. As Hu Jintao has failed to establish a strong enough power base, he could not seize control of the PSC from Jiang Zemin, the core of the third collective leadership, in the two party congresses in 2007 and 2012.

Now, Jiang is 86. It is time for him to select a successor to him as the core of the fourth generation of collective leadership. Hu was selected by Deng Xiaoping. Jiang allowed Hu to succeed him as the general secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission due to his respect to his mentor Deng Xiaoping.

Since Jiang has not treated Hu as his puppet and has his protégés in the PSC to help Hu in Hu’s work, perhaps Jiang at first wanted Hu to be his successor. However, Hu perhaps did not have such ambition or ability. During the decade Hu was in charge, Hu was not a leader strong enough so that he was challenged by Bo Xilai and others and unable to overcome the obstacles to reform.

The most serious problem is the rampant corruption under Hu’s rule.

Jiang’s dissatisfaction was first reflected in his close associate Zhu Rongji’s impromptu speech in Shanghai on January 18 (see my post The Mystery of Former Premier Breaking Silence)

The great importance that Jiang and his Shanghai faction attach to clean government is also reflected in their choice of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang as successors to party general secretary and premier. They were obviously selected for their integrity.

Jiang’s choice of Xi as successor to him as the core was clearly shown in his choice of five of his PSC members who will retire in 2017. If Jiang wanted to remain in control, he would have chosen younger ones who will remain in the PSC after 2007. Obviously Jiang left the five seats to be chosen by Xi in 2017.

Xi may obtain his own majority in the PSC in 2017. What about the military?

Chinese military is always the first in wanting to fight. If Xi supports them and allow them to fight for the isles against Japan, Xi certainly will be very popular among the generals.

In my book “Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements”, I describe how by the Gulf War, the US helped Jiang in establishing his control of Chinese troops. Now, perhaps, Japan and the US will help Xi establish his control of Chinese troops and build his power base as the core in the conflicts over the small isles called the Diaoyus by China and Senkakus by Japan.

Since the war will benefit Xi Jinping, only restraint on the Japanese side may prevent the war, but as hardliners control Japanese politics, they will fight a war to maintain their popularity.

We can only hope that the war will be a limited one within the areas around the disputed islands and the UN, US, EU and Russia will mediate a ceasefire soon after the fighting begins.

Sources: SCMP, Ming Pao, huanqiu.com, CCTV

About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee


5 thoughts on “Does hardliners’ landslide victory in Japan make war with China inevitable?

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.


    Posted by OyiaBrown | December 17, 2012, 6:43 pm


  1. Pingback: One step short of war between China and Japan « China Daily Mail - December 23, 2012

  2. Pingback: China harshens tone towards Japan over Senkaku dispute « China Daily Mail - December 25, 2012

  3. Pingback: Chinese navy buildup no threat to US, but a possible threat to Japan « China Daily Mail - January 5, 2013

  4. Pingback: Japanese hardliners softened by the US approach to China and Senkaku Islands « China Daily Mail - January 22, 2013

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