Subduing your enemy by stratagem is the best; subduing by diplomacy is second best; subduing by battles in the field is the third alternative; subduing by attacking enemy cities is the last alternative.–The Art of War by Sun Tze
Fighting and winning each and every battle is not the best of the best; subduing the enemy without fighting is the best of the best.–ditto
Amid a surge of nationalism due to maritime territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, a naive girl Li Qiuye wrote an article entitled “Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years”. Unexpectedly, the foolish article was quite popular and lots of Chinese media accept Li’s views.
Li regards the six wars as wars for reunification, but only the war with Taiwan was really for reunification while the wars with Russia and Mongolia are for recovery of lost territories and those with Japan, India and Vietnam are to resolve territorial disputes.
France and Germany fought for nearly a century for the disputed Alsace-Lorraine area, which was even one of the causes of world wars. Neither France nor Germany are so stupid as to fight on. They finally decided to set up the EU to put an end to the dispute forever.
Is China wise to fight wars to turn most of its neighbours into its enemies?
What will China get even if it wins all the wars?
First, the most important issue–the reunification with Taiwan. Reunification by force will bring China no benefit as Taiwan has little resources and no cheap labour. The damage done by the war will make China not only lose a substantial market but incur the heavy burden of feeding 20 million Taiwan people and maintaining their high living standards. Moreover, Taiwan is an island full of hills favourable for guerilla wars. The financial burden and the guerilla wars will make the Chinese regime unpopular and even collapse.
Li does not understand that the driving force is interest instead of the lofty slogan of reunification.
Russia, India, Japan and Vietnam will make every effort to recover the territories taken by China. There will be no end of wars with them. China will get nothing from those recovered barren territories, but will incur lots of expense in defending the recovered territories.
Obviously the third alternative battles in the field will not bring any benefit to China.
According to Sun Tze’s strategy, even if China wants to get the territories from those countries, China has to strive to be on good terms with all of them while making preparations for a war with one of them so that when it attacks the country selected, other countries will not help that country. That is second best way: subduing the enemy by diplomacy.
On the contrary, if China makes known that it will fight wars with all those countries, China will be subdued by them due to poor diplomacy as all those countries will unite to fight against China. Chinese leaders are certainly not so stupid as to make such a diplomatic mistake.
On the contrary, they are so wise as to use stratagem to subdue India.
More than 2,000 years ago, the State of Jin, one of the most powerful state in northern China, often had to unite with some smaller states to resist the invasion by the State of Chu, a rich and powerful state in southern China.
Having experienced lots of bitter wars, the State of Jin finally found a stratagem to stop the invasion. It helped Chu’s long-term enemy in the east, the State of Wu, to grow strong and trained Wu’s troops to fight against Chu. As a result, Chu’s troops were always busy fighting against Wu and could no longer invade the north.
Similarly, China is now making huge investment to help Pakistan, India’s long-term enemy, develop its economy. There does not seem to be good prospects for return of such huge investment, but it is worth the risk. If China succeeds in helping Pakistan build enough power plants to enable Chinese factories to move to Pakistan. The Chinese will provide lots of employment for Pakistani people and put an end to their poverty.
A strong Pakistan will cause India to be anxious to resolve the border issue with China so as to avoid having two strong enemies.
The following is the full text of Reuters report titled “Exclusive: China commits $6.5 billion for Pakistani nuclear project” on how China is investing heavily in Pakistan’s power plant projects:
China has committed $6.5 billion to finance the construction of a major nuclear power project in Pakistan’s port city of Karachi as it seeks to strengthen ties with its strategic partner, Pakistani officials said.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif broke ground on the $9.59 billion project last month but officials have provided few details of how they plan to finance it.
Financing documents seen by Reuters showed China National Nuclear Cooperation (CNNC) has promised to grant a loan of at least $6.5 billion to finance the project which will have two reactors with a capacity of 1,100 megawatts each.
Two members of the government’s energy team and three sources close to the deal confirmed this. CNNC was not available for comment.
“China has complete confidence in Pakistan’s capacity to run a nuclear power plant with all checks in place,” said Ansar Parvez, chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission which runs the civilian nuclear program.
“As things stand, the performance and capacity of nuclear power plants in Pakistan is far better compared to non-nuclear plants.”
Parvez declined to give more details of the funding but said it would be completed by 2019 and each of the two reactors would be larger than the combined power of all nuclear reactors now operating in Pakistan.
As part of the deal, China has also waived a $250,000 insurance premium on the loan, said two sources in the Energy Ministry with knowledge of the project. They declined to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media about the financing.
Pakistan and China, both nuclear-armed nations, consider each other close friends and their ties have been underpinned by common wariness of India and a desire to hedge against U.S. influence in South Asia.
Pakistan sees nuclear energy as key to its efforts to solve power shortages that have crippled its economy. Pakistan generates about 11,000 MW of power while total demand is about 15,000 MW.
Blackouts lasting more than half a day in some areas have infuriated many Pakistanis and sparked violent protests, undermining an economy already beset by high unemployment, widespread poverty, crime and sectarian and insurgent violence.
Under its long-term energy plan, Pakistan hopes to produce more than 40,000 MW of electricity through nuclear plants by 2050.
The United States sealed a nuclear supply deal with India in 2008, irking both China and Pakistan.
Pakistan wants a similar agreement with the United States but it is reluctant, largely because Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan admitted in 2004 to transferring nuclear secrets to North Korea, Iran and Iraq.
“There should be no double standards in terms of civilian nuclear deals,” Parvez said. “Pakistan has energy needs and the building of two new reactors should convince everyone that international embargos and restrictions and Indian lobbying won’t stop us.”
Pakistan carried out its first nuclear tests in 1998, soon after India conducted tests. Both refuse to join the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which would oblige them to scrap atomic weapons.
China has already helped supply two nuclear reactors at the Chashma nuclear power complex in Pakistan’s Punjab region, while another two are also under construction with Chinese assistance.
China’s nuclear cooperation with Pakistan has caused unease in Washington, Delhi and other capitals due to fears about commitment to nuclear non-proliferation rules.
China says its nuclear ties with Pakistan are entirely peaceful and come under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. It has not given details of the project’s financing but state media has put its total value at $9.59 billion.
“Bilateral cooperation in the energy sector is to help ameliorate Pakistan’s energy shortages,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Monday. “This accords with the interests of the Pakistani people.”
Three prominent physicists recently raised questions about the safety, design and cost of the new reactors in Karachi, sparking a national debate.
“There is no official information about preparedness for a nuclear accident in Karachi that is available publicly,” said Zia Mian, a Pakistani-American physicist who directs the Project on Peace and Security in South Asia at Princeton University.
“The only real obstacle that may exist to the new reactors being built is if the citizens of Karachi decide they do not want to live with the risks these reactors create.”
But Pakistan’s new energy minister has dismissed the critics.
“Every 1,000 megawatts of electricity produced through nuclear energy saves you $1 billion in oil imports,” Khawaja Asif, the minister for water and power, told Reuters.
“If critics can give me alternatives and other platforms to raise money for low-cost, clean power, I’m willing to listen.”Source: Reuters – Exclusive: China commits $6.5 billion for Pakistani nuclear project
- China confirms nuclear deal with Pakistan (chinadailymail.com)
- China Lends Pakistan $6.5 Billion For Nuclear Power Stations (rferl.org)
- China loans Pakistan $6.5 bn for nuclear plants (nuclearpowerdaily.com)
- China to continue helping Pakistan in nuclear energy (nation.com.pk)
- India, Pakistan exchange nuclear facilities list (nzherald.co.nz)
- China asks world community to respect territorial integrity of Pakistan (nation.com.pk)
- India, Pakistan Exchange Nuclear Facilities List (abcnews.go.com)
- Muzaffargarh, Ahmadpur East selected for new N-power plants (dawn.com)
- China loans Pakistan $6.5 billion for nuclear plants (ndtv.com)
- Pak-India exchange lists of nuclear installations, prisoners (sananews.net)
- India, Pakistan exchange nuclear facilities list (dawn.com)