A Taiwan Strait civil war is what Washington hopes for.
A first gun shot from Taipei is what Beijing hopes for.
A direct military participation from the U.S. is what Taipei hopes for.
It is the waiting game all have been playing with since 2019.
A new variable has come into play, that is the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election in Nov 2020. As Donald Trump has recovered quickly from the COVID-19 infection, unless he unexpectedly falls ill again, it seems from his White House salute manner that he is determined to serve one more term whatever may happen in the voting.
This determination is not just shown by his serious manner and heroic facial expression during the salute, but also evidenced by his ‘confidence’ in himself. Trump has made a surprising move in respect of the coronavirus stimulus bill in progress: “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win …” (CNBC Oct 6)
As what I said in June, whoever wins the election, chaos will arise. While the right-wing Proud Boys has pledged to “standby’ (NBC News Sep 30), the left-wing armed militia has no longer chosen to shy away from the reporters’ camera (MSN Daily News Oct 5). Concerns about a possible second U.S. Civil War have emerged from Bloomberg (July 2), Salon (Sep 22), to even Washington Post (Oct 5).
In case war-like situations take place in the U.S. as a whole or just several states, what is happening in the Taiwan Strait is beyond Washington’s reach. By this time, it is the real moment of test to both Beijing and Taipei. Before this moment, all are empty talks.
The opinions expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of China News.