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Finance & Economy

This category contains 302 posts

China has the v-shaped recovery of which Trump can only dream


This month, China released its third-quarter economic indicators, including a GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent. The figures confirmed that the country is on track for an economic recovery after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the whole of 2020, the IMF forecasts, China’s GDP will grow by nearly 2 percent—much lower than … Continue reading

You can’t pay cash in China


It’s hard for those of us who live outside of China to grasp how paying for everything has gone digital in the country. Most businesses there, from the fanciest hotels to roadside fruit stands, display a QR code — a type of bar code — that people scan with a smartphone camera to pay with … Continue reading

The US-China digital currency competition


RMB200 digital cash was given freely to each of 50,000 consumers selected by a lottery in Shenzhen, mainland China, in early Oct as an experimental trial for use (Reuters Oct 19). Each consumer is given a ‘digital wallet’ with the digital cash from the Central Bank by downloading an App onto his/her smart phone. Payment … Continue reading

China slowing the yuan’s rise? Very doubtful


There was much ado on Bloomberg and other financial news services when the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced last Saturday that financial institutions no longer need to set aside cash for risk reserves when purchasing foreign exchange for clients through forward contracts starting on Monday. The move was widely interpreted as signaling the PBoC’s … Continue reading

‘Foreign Affairs’ warns against US-China decoupling


The influential journal Foreign Affairs 2020 Sept 16 came to my mailbox with these paragraphs: “… There is broad bipartisan support in Washington for taking a tougher approach to trade with China and reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese goods. But is it a good idea to try to sever the two countries’ economic ties? Henry … Continue reading

Gold, Vaccine, and Chinese Renminbi/US Dollar


“Gold prices rose through and $10 above the $2000 per ounce level in London trade Tuesday (Aug 18), peaking $65 below early August’s record spike ($2,075 on Aug 7) …” “Silver meantime outpaced gold prices once more, rising back above $28 per ounce after breaching that level for the first time in over 7 years … Continue reading

How the China GDP growth rate fabrication was revealed


China have long been suspected of fabricating their GDP to attract more foreign investment. This video reveals why and how they are doing it.

United States senator calls on China to repay $1.6 trillion of century-old debt


Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., introduced a resolution Thursday calling on China to repay U.S. bondholders more than $1.6 trillion of sovereign debt, including interest, that pre-dates the country’s Communist government. The measure is co-sponsored by Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and a House measure led by Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., is forthcoming. Resolutions lack the force … Continue reading

How to beat China and help the world’s poor


A proxy for the contest between American and Chinese capitalism will take place in developing countries, where institutions are manifestly not coping with the economic recession triggered by Covid-19. The two billion people who work outside the global financial system in the informal economy suffered a 60% drop in income in the first month of … Continue reading

How the coronavirus pandemic will push developing countries to delink their economies from China


For nearly 60 years, export-led development strategies have propelled economic growth throughout the Asia-Pacific. The famous “four tigers” – South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore – rapidly sped up industrialisation by exporting goods in which they had a comparative advantage, moving quickly up the economic development ladder. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and others later did … Continue reading

Beijing may target Apple, Boeing and other US tech giants in retaliation for Huawei ban


China has reportedly picked US targets to strike back at in response to new restrictions on its telecom giant Huawei, as Washington attempts to cut the firm off from global semiconductors supplies. As tensions continue to escalate between the world’s two biggest economies, the US Commerce Department announced on Friday that it was amending an … Continue reading

China owes the US $1.6 trillion in century-old Chinese war bonds, and Trump wants them to pay up


As the Trump administration seeks ways to penalize China for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it need look no further than Tennessee. The Lewisburg, Tennessee-based American Bondholder Foundation holds $1.6 trillion of century-old Chinese debt, including interest, dating to before the founding of the communist People’s Republic of China, that it wants the administration’s help … Continue reading

China’s economy in worst downturn since 1960s in virus battle


China faces a drawn-out struggle to revive an economy that suffered its biggest contraction since possibly the mid-1960s after millions of people were told to stay home to fight the coronavirus. The world’s second-largest economy shrank by 6.8% from a year earlier in the quarter ending in March after factories, offices and shopping malls were … Continue reading

An overview of China’s economy and how coronavirus affected it


China has been the highest contributor to global economic growth for more than a decade. The capitalist market reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 paved the way for its impressive growth journey. China has set one of the best examples of how opening up of an economy can transform a country into a dominant … Continue reading

China’s economy suffers heavy blow as epidemic paralyzes activity


China’s industrial output contracted at the sharpest pace in 30 years in the first two months of the year as the fast spreading coronavirus and strict containment measures severely disrupted the world’s second-largest economy, data showed on Monday. Urban investment and retail sales also fell sharply and for the first time on record, reinforcing views … Continue reading

China is making progress in the battle to get back to work


China is slowly starting to get back to work, as it battles the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 2,600 people and sickened tens of thousands. Government controls and the fear of going outside have curtailed spending, and many factories are still not working at full capacity due to a lack of staff, with … Continue reading

It’s time for global businesses to admit it: China isn’t a good investment


Global companies have flocked to invest in China for decades, lured by the promise of cheap, skilled labor and a stable, if tyrannical, government. Recent economic shocks show it’s time for them to rethink that cozy arrangement. The coronavirus outbreak is the first shock to the Chinese industrial complex. The disease is spreading so fast … Continue reading

Former Chinese finance minister warns China and US are on brink of ‘financial war’


The growing rivalry between China and the United States is at risk of becoming a “financial war”, a former Chinese finance minister said on Saturday. Speaking at an industry forum in Beijing, Lou Jiwei, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, said that despite the compromises … Continue reading

Chinese bank on verge of collapse after sudden bank run


First it was Baoshang Bank , then it was Bank of Jinzhou, then, two months ago, China’s Heng Feng Bank with 1.4 trillion yuan in assets, quietly failed and was just as quietly nationalized. Today, a fourth prominent Chinese bank was on the verge of collapse under the weight of its bad loans, only this … Continue reading

Draft rules issued to allow foreign companies to list in China


China’s justice ministry on Friday published draft rules to allow foreign companies to list on the country’s stock exchanges, with the intention of implementing the changes on Jan. 1. China has long been criticized for barring foreign firms from its capital markets, while Chinese companies debut across the world. The planned reform has been unveiled … Continue reading

Hong Kong falls into recession as protests deal ‘comprehensive blow‘ to economy


Hong Kong has fallen into recession, hit by five months of anti-government protests that erupted in flames at the weekend, and is unlikely to achieve any growth this year, the city’s Financial Secretary said. Black-clad and masked demonstrators set fire to shops and hurled petrol bombs at police on Sunday following a now-familiar pattern, with … Continue reading

Hong Kong Stock Exchange just proposed a $37 billion deal to buy the London Stock Exchange


Hong Kong Stock Exchange says it’s proposing to buy the London Stock Exchange Group for $36.6 billion. The Hong Kong exchange, or HKEX, announced the plan on its website Wednesday morning, the result of what it said was “early engagement” with the London Stock Exchange. A tie-up would create an exchange giant with a combined … Continue reading

A lot is at stake for China’s economy as Hong Kong protests drag on


Concerns over Hong Kong’s political and economic future are growing as pro-democracy protests drag on and turn increasingly violent, and China makes clear that forceful intervention is possible. An intervention by Chinese troops could seriously damage Hong Kong’s standing as a stable international financial centre and a gateway for global capital flowing into the world’s … Continue reading

Trump’s trade war has led to a historically weak Chinese currency


Global currencies have been pushed front-and-center as trade tensions between the US and China have escalated. Of particular interest to many watchers is the relative strength of the dollar versus the Chinese yuan, which sits at multiyear lows. On Friday, the yuan posted its largest monthly loss in 25 years after sliding 3.8% versus the … Continue reading

India, The Philippines and Indonesia will overtake China as top drivers of global economy


India and the Philippines will be the top drivers of global economic growth over the next decade, beating China. That’s according to an Oxford Economics study published earlier this year, which ranks the top ten emerging market economies to dominate the global economy over the next ten years. In terms of economic growth, that is. … Continue reading

Hong Kong firms face a choice: Good relations with China, or a dent to their international reputation


The crisis in Hong Kong continues unabated and some of the world’s largest businesses need to make an important decision: maintain a positive relationship with mainland China or uphold their reputation in the territories and in other parts of the world. In Hong Kong, business is the territory’s lifeblood. Hong Kong came third in the … Continue reading

A quick look at Dalio’s warning of US T-Bond weaponization by China


World’s largest hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, said “he wouldn’t rule out China using its Treasury holdings to gain an upper hand against the U.S, in the trade war — a view that contrasts with many other observers …” reported by CNBC on Aug 16. In the wake of China’s USD1.11 trillion of … Continue reading

China joins Russia and allies experimenting blockchain tech to dethrone USD


“China, Iran, Venezuela are developing crypto in effort to dethrone US”, reported by Yahoo Finance on July 11, quoting a report published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Cryptocurrency is a medium of exchange in digital form, and more importantly, it operates outside the conventional central and commercial banking systems which are now … Continue reading

China is close to a financial crisis


China haters have been waiting for a financial crisis out of China since at least the early 2000s. Each and every time, the People’s Bank of China’s plunge protection team or the central planners in Beijing would throw buckets of ice water on their heads. This time might be different. This time they are dealing … Continue reading

US-China ‘trade’ war, if not ended soon, may spill over to ‘finance’


“On the international monetary front, the key problem was the acute dollar shortage in post-war Europe … In the effort to reconstruct a viable Western Europe, the United States conceded degrees of protection and discrimination in trade that were incompatible with its original blueprint …” Ian Clark, a Fellow of the British Academy and a … Continue reading

Businesses struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy


Cracks are opening in China’s mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs. The world’s second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging further in recent months. While gross domestic product grew at 6.6 per cent in … Continue reading

The myth about Chinese monetary policy


Government policies always generate conflicts of interests within society, monetary policy is no exception. Foreign policies, to some extent, are the reflection and extension of domestic governance. Domestic monetary policy, no matter how elusive and insignificant to some people, provides the currency for Chinese government’s outreaching tentacles around the world. On October 7, 2018, the … Continue reading

Drink beer to understand the China Model


Cheers! ‘France 24’ reported on Nov 5 that “… Heineken seals $3 bn deal with China’s top brewer …… Under the deal the Dutch brewer said it will take a 40 percent stake in the holding company that controls China Resources Beer, merge its current operations in China into the firm and license to it … Continue reading

Looking at the US-China Trade War from a Micro-Perspective: The Aluminum Imports


On July 6, U.S. initiated $34 billion worth of tariffs on imports from China, officially marking the largest trade war since the Great Depression. Among the imported goods levied, including auto parts, jet engine parts and other machinery, aluminum and other metals have long been the targets of U.S. tariffs. But this time, aluminum has … Continue reading

Trump to win more trophies from China in the 2018 trade war


US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is said to be visiting China beginning from May 3 Thursday. It means the trade war negotiation is about to enter into the direct bargaining stage and, if done smoothly, a deal would be finalized very quickly. Trump’s victory appears to be too easy and more fruitful than anticipated. The … Continue reading

Trump will win the US-China trade war easily


Beijing will accept a new US-China trade deal which is dictated by Trump. The American oilseeds for producing cooking oil, navigational instruments for building cargo vessels (dry bulk or container ships), intermediate producer goods for manufacturing … (see the picture shown above) are at this moment irreplaceable items that China needs to import from the … Continue reading

Duterte in between China and Quad


“Australia, the United States, India and Japan are talking about establishing a joint regional infrastructure scheme as an alternative to China’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative in an attempt to counter Beijing’s spreading influence …” reported by Reuters on Feb 19, 2018. These four countries are commonly referred to as the “Quad”, the driving force … Continue reading

The ‘Power Audit’ of EU-China


In Dec 2017, the European Council on Foreign Relations published a Power Audit report on China’s influence, named as “China at the gates”. It is a very long essay with lots of details. In the summary, it says “China practises ‘pick and choose’ in its relations with the European Union, focusing on its direct interests, … Continue reading

Why China’s stock market is so boring


In September 2008, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired 10% stake in BYD, a pioneer in electric vehicle technology and production in China, for around US$232 million (around HK$1.8 billion or HK$8 per share). This morning, it is $79, slightly down from the record high of HK$83 a few days ago. BYD’s share price followed the … Continue reading

Could Hong Kong, after a merger with Shenzhen, help China’s One Belt One Road thrive?


According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) June 2016 research report “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” which was described as “a political bombshell … that caused a near-panic among advocates of free market policies” by the Foreign Policy analyst Rick Rowden [Note 1] , what ‘capital account liberalisation’ brings to developing countries is “the pervasiveness of booms and … Continue reading

Manila-Beijing relations to determine ASEAN growth


As the two possible ‘Joint Development Areas’ — “off Triton Island in the Paracels” and “Reed Bank off Philippine Palawan” [Note 1] — have almost been out of the minds of both the analysts and general public of the Philippines, a failure to revive the Manila–Beijing relation after the May 9 presidential election would jeopardize … Continue reading

China to ban foreign companies from online media business


The ruling Chinese Communist Party has announced new regulations that will ban foreign companies from publishing online media, games and other “creative” content within China’s borders from next month. The “Regulations for the management of online publishing services” also ban foreign-invested joint ventures from engaging in online content provision, according to a copy of the … Continue reading

The truth behind China’s exchange rate delusion


The current bout of anxiety is a symptom of the fact that China’s transition from an export-led growth strategy is proceeding far less smoothly than hoped China’s management of its exchange rate peg continues to rattle global financial markets. Uncertainty about renminbi devaluation is fuelling fears that deflationary forces will sweep through emerging markets and … Continue reading

The currency dictatorship and China’s action plan


The last time a country decided to dump the dollar in the oil business, the US destroyed it. Now India, the world’s third largest economy, and Iran have agreed to settle their outstanding oil dues in rupees. What’s more, the two countries may conduct all future trade in their national currencies. This follows an agreement … Continue reading

Ghost cities show China crisis, but is the Chinese furniture market still interesting?


Yujiapu is one of the most impressive ghost cities in China. An almost empty agglomerate of half-finished buildings and skyscrapers modelled on Manhattan’s skyline. Many say it’s one of the most scary landmark of China’s failed ambitions: a ghost city that was once supposed to become a world financial centre. Many others say it’s an … Continue reading

China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies


China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defence companies that sell arms to Taiwan should come as no surprise to American officials or corporate executives: Washington has been issuing sanctions of these sorts for years. It was only a matter of time before U.S. competitors started copying its tactics. Regardless of whether China follows … Continue reading

China halts stock trading after 7% rout triggers circuit breaker


The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day. Trading was halted at about 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index dropped 7 … Continue reading

Cool War: United States and China in the future of the global competition


Are we on the edge of a new Cold War era? Or, alternatively, every power struggle mindset has to be considered a lost legacy of the XX century and we’re headed to a new era of global cooperation? These are the big questions opening Cool War by Noah Feldman, a must read essay on the … Continue reading

Understanding the two Chinas


Our view that China may be heading for a mild cyclical upswing next year needs to be set against the background of the broader economy, which is changing rapidly. We think that it makes sense to view the economy as consisting of two parts: old and new. In its latest Five-Year Plan—full details of which … Continue reading

China has a $1.2 trillion Ponzi finance problem


Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low. The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance arranged to cover interest payments will probably rise 5 percent this year to a record … Continue reading

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